Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Today the market continued to fall from the disastrous day yesterday. My positions I put on are  down big. Most of my profits from previous trades are nearly wiped out. 

I made two mistakes. 

One I didn't have a clear exit plan and two I rushed into the trades. I said to myself that I need to be patient and wait for the right signal because I had been very successful lately with my option trades. When I was calm I stated to myself that I would wait for the markets to test the November lows and wait a bit to see that those lows are not breeched much further, then it would be safe to get back in. At this point we would have a temporary bottom. Last flex Friday I was starring at the screen and rushed into trades. I had done my analysis but didn't have the patience. I had a lan on when to get out but I didn't get out of the trades or adjusted the trades. I thought that the markets would rally some after yesterdays more than 5% fall. Well I was wrong. The market continues to fall today like it has done last year where the markets fell relentlessly for days at end more than 1 SD.

Last night I was setting up trades and somehow I screwed up on the exit trade. I wanted to exit my 410C Calendar. I was messing with the order type categories in the Monitor page. Somehow I put in a trade to but the short March 410C leg and I didn't exit the long leg as a calendar spread. The trade was executed near the market open @4.4. I could've bought the 410C March short for much less.  

Today reminded me of days last year, when I put on trades that went againist me. The market kept going down at least one standard deviation or more at times. I never exited those trades.  Luckily the market turned around and I was able to exit the trades for a gain.  This time is like the last time. Unlike last time I sold options with longer days to expiration. This will give me time for the market to rally back up to exit the trades. 

According to some analysis on the cycles the market should start a rally on Friday and this temporary Bear market rally should be either confirmed or rejected by Monday's (3/9) action.

I need to have a plan in place and watch what the markets do on Friday and the Monday's confirmation message. Otherewise we could be well below the 400 level in the RUT for a while.


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