PPIP explained, a good investment?

I must say the trade is very appealing and a big ripoff if the banks with the toxic assets participates in the program through SPV or hedge fund. Very troubling for the tax payers because the loss is limited for the private investor, while the majority of the loss will be from the Fed, in other words tax payers. 

The hard part is determining the probabilty of two scenarios: 1) that the loan is worth more than current depressed market value and 2) loan is worth the market value. 

Case 1 results in a profit and case 2 a loss. As the video indicates that the expected probability is 12.5 if there is a 50% for each case. It is uncertain what those probabilities are. Knowing what those probabilities are it might be a good trade and risk:reward. Hey I would like to participate, why should PPIP be limited to just hedge funds or the big boys on wall street.